The Elon University/Pew Foundation 2008 survey "Imagining the Internet"has been released and can be found at: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/about.xhtml.
This is afascinating look at what people expect from the future of the Internetand how we think about the ways our lives will be changed by futureinterconnectivity. Whether or not it is an accurate prediction of thefuture, it is a fascinating survey of where our thinking is today. The site contains 6000 pages and is rich with interesting information,ideas, and insights. Here's a reblog of the abstract with links.
Reblogged from http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/about.xhtml. Please go to the site itself for hundreds of fascinating links.
IMAGINING THE INTERNET: A HISTORY AND A FORECAST
The links on this page lead to thousands of forecasts about the networked future
This eight-part 2008 survey of technology experts and social analystsinspired thousands of intriguing predictive statements tied to eightcompelling question sets about the state of things in 2020. Expertswere asked what devices we will use to access the Internet and how wewill connect, if social tolerance will be improved thanks to new waysof connection, if our work and home lives will be better, and how muchinfluence virtual reality and augmented reality will have.
To see the report of results, click here to download a PDF of the official Pew Internet & American Life report on the 2008 Predictions Survey: http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/predictions/2008_survey.pdf. More-detailed content is available on this site at the links below.the qualitative results?were the most valuable data gathered by the study. Thuswe have built this site with links to thousands of answers, with ourthanks to the survey participants for contributing to this repositoryof thoughtful projective data.
Among the quantitative results from the expert group:
- Some 77% said the mobile computing device (the smartphone) with more significant computing power will be 2020's primary global Internet-connection platform.
- 64% favored the idea that 2020 user interfaces will offer advanced touch, talk and typing options and some added a fourth "T" - think.
- Nearly four out of five respondents (78%) said the original Internet architecture will not be completely replaced by a next-generation 'net by 2020.
- Three out of five respondents (60%) disagreed with the idea that legislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies will exercise effective intellectual property control by 2020.
- A majority?56%?agreed that in 2020 "few lines (will) divide professional from personal time, and that's OK."
- 56% said while Web 2.0 is bringing some people closer, social tolerance will not be heightened by our new connections
- 45% agreed and 44% disagreed with the notion that the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the Internet will heighten individual integrity and forgiveness.
- More than half (55%) agreed that many lives will be touched in 2020 by virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality, while 45% disagreed or did not answer the question.
12 more links: To read report content with added supplemental information not contained in the official report?includinga large selection of the thousands of fascinating written responses byInternet stakeholders to each of the survey's scenarios?lookat the listing below and click on a topic of interest to you. Includedare biographies of some respondents and the news release explainingthis project. All scenarios are set in 2020.